Bi-Weekly Report 28 August - 10 September 2018
Turkey
Headline inflation rose sharply to a 14-year high of 17.9% y-o-y in August, mainly due to a sharp depreciation of the domestic currency
An aggressive hike to the key policy rate at the September MPC meeting is key to preserving macroeconomic and financial stability
GDP growth moderated to 5.2% y-o-y in Q2:18 from 7.3% in Q1:18, mainly due to heightening uncertainty ahead of the June 24th dual presidential and parliamentary elections
Romania
The 12-month rolling budget deficit widened to 3.4% of GDP in July from 2.8% in December, well above the critical 3.0% threshold
Bulgaria
Stronger tax revenue helped offset upward pressures on current spending and public investment, keeping the 12-month rolling budget surplus at 0.9% of GDP in July, broadly unchanged compared with end-2017
Bulgaria's already low public debt is set to decline further in FY:18
Serbia
GDP growth surprised on the upside for a second consecutive quarter in Q2:18 (4.8% y-o-y)
NBS to initiate a new cycle of monetary policy tightening in Q2:19
FYROM
Banking sector ROAE (annualised) reached a record high of 21.3% in the first half of the year
Albania
Albania's electricity generation doubled in H1:18, as a result of abundant rainfall
A broadly neutral fiscal stance in 7M:18
Cyprus
The fiscal balance improved by 1.5 pps y-o-y to a surplus of 2.6% of GDP in 7M:18, due to a strong tax revenue performance and strict spending control
The recovery of real estate prices continued in Q1:18 (up 1.8% y-o-y)
Egypt
GDP growth is estimated to have reached a 10-year high of 5.2% in FY:17/18
The tourism sector emerged from a deep crisis, mainly supported by a cheaper domestic currency and improved security conditions
Appendix: Financial Markets