Global Economy & Markets, Weekly Roundup 21/10/24
Emerging market equities are negative month-to-date (-1.9%), as investors price in less interest rate cuts by the Fed and the USD has increased to a 2-1/2 month high
The S&P500 rose by +0.9% wow at fresh record highs (5865) on the back of strong economic data and positive earnings announcements. US Treasury yields have increased aggressively in October (+40 bps to 4.20%) as investors trimmed their expectations vis-à-vis sizeable rate cuts by the Fed and term premia have also moved higher ahead of the November Elections.
The US outlook remains strong, driven primarily by the consumer, with upbeat retail sales in September (+0.4% mom and +5.3% qoq saar in Q3:2024, in nominal terms). All told, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model points to a solid +3.4% qoq saar growth (+2.8% yoy) for real GDP in Q3:2024 after +2.3% qoq saar on average in H1:2024 (+3.0% yoy).
Regarding earnings, with 71 of the S&P500 companies having reported so far, EPS has surpassed analysts’ estimates by +6.4%, above an average “beat rate” of +4.2% since 1994. Analysts’ estimates (combining actual and estimated results) point to +4% year-over-year Q3:2024 EPS growth, from +13.2% in the previous quarter.
The earnings season enters full speed, with 114 companies due to report in the current week and 172 in the next one including heavy-weights Tesla (23/10), Alphabet (29/10), Meta (30/10), Microsoft (30/10), Apple (31/10) and Amazon (31/10).
The ECB cut its policy interest rates for a second consecutive meeting by -25 bps to 3.25%, as expected. The decision came as financial conditions remain restrictive, economic activity has been weaker than anticipated and euro area CPI inflation has decelerated by more than expected.
The ECB maintained its data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach on forward guidance, not pre-committing to any path. Nevertheless, with economic growth risks tilted to the downside and the disinflation progress well on track, market pricing according to overnight index swap markets suggests another -25 bps cut to take place in December.
Chinese bourses were mixed (CSI300: +1.0% wow | MSCI China: -2.8% wow), posting large swings, with the rollout of stimulus policies being the epicenter of investors’ attention. USD strength (highest level since August) has also weighed, with emerging market equities down by -1.9% month-to-date.
The People’s Bank of China reduced by -25 bps the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (a benchmark for interest rate setting by commercial banks for most corporate and short-term household loans) to 3.1% and its 5-year peer (a benchmark for mortgage loans) to 3.6%.
The real estate sector is in the spotlight of Authorities’ support efforts, as it faces significant fundamental challenges. Note that as of September, sales of residential buildings fell by -19% in cumulative year-to-date yoy terms and housing starts by -22% ytd yoy (both in terms of floor space). House prices have declined by -5.8% yoy in September (the weakest since 2015).
On a positive note, China’s real GDP growth modestly exceeded expectations in Q3:2024, at +4.6% year-over-year from +4.7% yoy in Q2:2024 and +5.3% yoy in Q1:2024, versus consensus for +4.5%. Momentum-wise, the positive surprise was due to stronger than expected economic activity in September.
The S&P500 rose by +0.9% wow at fresh record highs (5865) on the back of strong economic data and positive earnings announcements. US Treasury yields have increased aggressively in October (+40 bps to 4.20%) as investors trimmed their expectations vis-à-vis sizeable rate cuts by the Fed and term premia have also moved higher ahead of the November Elections.
The US outlook remains strong, driven primarily by the consumer, with upbeat retail sales in September (+0.4% mom and +5.3% qoq saar in Q3:2024, in nominal terms). All told, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model points to a solid +3.4% qoq saar growth (+2.8% yoy) for real GDP in Q3:2024 after +2.3% qoq saar on average in H1:2024 (+3.0% yoy).
Regarding earnings, with 71 of the S&P500 companies having reported so far, EPS has surpassed analysts’ estimates by +6.4%, above an average “beat rate” of +4.2% since 1994. Analysts’ estimates (combining actual and estimated results) point to +4% year-over-year Q3:2024 EPS growth, from +13.2% in the previous quarter.
The earnings season enters full speed, with 114 companies due to report in the current week and 172 in the next one including heavy-weights Tesla (23/10), Alphabet (29/10), Meta (30/10), Microsoft (30/10), Apple (31/10) and Amazon (31/10).
The ECB cut its policy interest rates for a second consecutive meeting by -25 bps to 3.25%, as expected. The decision came as financial conditions remain restrictive, economic activity has been weaker than anticipated and euro area CPI inflation has decelerated by more than expected.
The ECB maintained its data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach on forward guidance, not pre-committing to any path. Nevertheless, with economic growth risks tilted to the downside and the disinflation progress well on track, market pricing according to overnight index swap markets suggests another -25 bps cut to take place in December.
Chinese bourses were mixed (CSI300: +1.0% wow | MSCI China: -2.8% wow), posting large swings, with the rollout of stimulus policies being the epicenter of investors’ attention. USD strength (highest level since August) has also weighed, with emerging market equities down by -1.9% month-to-date.
The People’s Bank of China reduced by -25 bps the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (a benchmark for interest rate setting by commercial banks for most corporate and short-term household loans) to 3.1% and its 5-year peer (a benchmark for mortgage loans) to 3.6%.
The real estate sector is in the spotlight of Authorities’ support efforts, as it faces significant fundamental challenges. Note that as of September, sales of residential buildings fell by -19% in cumulative year-to-date yoy terms and housing starts by -22% ytd yoy (both in terms of floor space). House prices have declined by -5.8% yoy in September (the weakest since 2015).
On a positive note, China’s real GDP growth modestly exceeded expectations in Q3:2024, at +4.6% year-over-year from +4.7% yoy in Q2:2024 and +5.3% yoy in Q1:2024, versus consensus for +4.5%. Momentum-wise, the positive surprise was due to stronger than expected economic activity in September.