ROMANIA
A weak start to the year confirms economy’s structural deficiencies
Despite the envisaged fiscal consolidation, domestic absorption
is expected to remain solid over the forecast horizon, sustaining GDP growth
Political stability is key pre-condition for sustaining a credible fiscal consolidation path
SERBIA
Deployment of the EXPO 2027 development plan, higher defense spending and increased interest payments should keep the budget deficit close to the 3.0% of GDP threshold over the forecast horizon
Public debt is projected to remain on a downward trend on solid economic growth, despite increased budget deficits
CYPRUS
Cyprus’ recurrent sizeable fiscal surpluses -- the largest in the EU -- along with strong nominal GDP growth have put public debt on a steep downward path, with the latter falling below the EU average for the first time since 2012
Continued -- yet decreasing -- fiscal surpluses -- along with a still favourable (but diminishing) snowball effect, should bring the public-debt-to-GDP ratio below the EU threshold of 60% by end-2027, for the first time since 2010
APPENDIX:
DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA
REGIONAL SNAPSHOT:
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
FINANCIAL MARKETS
Countries in Focus in this Issue: Romania, Serbia & Cyprus
Southeastern Europe & Mediterranean Emerging Market Economies: Bi-Weekly Report 17 - 30 September 2024