Southeastern Europe & Mediterranean Emerging Market Economies: Bi-Weekly Report 3 - 16 September 2024

BULGARIA
Bulgaria to hold another snap Parliamentary election in October
Worryingly, the forthcoming election is likely to deliver another hung Parliament, failing to resolve the political crisis
Political uncertainty is set to continue weighing on investment climate, constraining economic growth
Resilient private consumption should continue to drive GDP growth in the period ahead

NORTH MACEDONIA
GDP growth is set to firm to 2.3% in FY:24 and 3.3% in FY:25, underpinned by real wage-driven private consumption growth and (mostly public) investment 
While the May election brought political stability domestically, uncertainty as regards the country’s EU accession is set to remain

EGYPT
GDP growth bottomed out to an estimated 2.4% in FY:23/24, down from 3.8% in FY:22/23, reflecting not only domestic headwinds from prolonged FX-led inflationary pressures, significant policy tightening and poor economic sentiment, but also repercussions from the conflict in neighbouring Gaza
Economic recovery is on the cards, with GDP growth picking up modestly to 3.8% in FY:24/25 and strengthening towards its long-term potential of c. 41/2 % in FY:25/26

APPENDIX:
DETAILED MACROECONOMIC DATA
REGIONAL SNAPSHOT:  
        MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
        FINANCIAL MARKETS