Greek tourism in 2024 is set to repeat last year's success, having already achieved a dynamic start (+24% in arrivals in the first quarter compared to 2023) and showing positive signs for the future from almost all leading indicators. Specifically, the future demand index for Greek hotels is at historic highs, with optimism reflected in record net hires for the period February-April (+98k compared to +90k in 2023). At the same time, international air traffic compared to 2023 figures shows:
- An increase in spring international arrivals (around 20%), raising expectations for reduced seasonality,
- An increase in scheduled seats for the June-October period (+8%), and
- Strong demand from independent tourists (+14% in bookings so far).
Against this backdrop, it is estimated that 2024 could achieve new records, with arrivals reaching approximately 35 million tourists (+7% vs 2023) and higher revenue per tourist, leading to total receipts of around €22 billion (+10% vs 2023) and an increased market share in the Mediterranean region. However, there is a significant range of risks around our baseline scenario (mainly tilted downward), due to high geopolitical and climatic uncertainties as well as potential disruptions from the bankruptcy of FTI Touristik.
At this critical juncture, the National Bank of Greece, through its field study conducted in 200 hotels for the second consecutive year, aims to assess the sector's outlook. Starting with the hotels' expectations for 2024, it is noted that these largely align with our own estimates, projecting an annual sales increase of approximately 10%. However, the sector continues to struggle with staffing issues, with 80% of the sector reporting a number of vacancies equal to or exceeding those of 2023.
Looking at a medium-term perspective and delving into the survey's findings, we observe that:
- Greek hotels are largely aware of the current sustainability challenges and recognize the immediate risks posed by climate change and the consistently high seasonality of increasing tourist volume. Specifically, 84% of the sector believes that underutilized areas such as culture and gastronomy could add significant value to Greek tourism, broadening the range of activities and experiences available to tourists beyond the traditional "sun and sea" model.
- Turning words into actions, 80% of the sector prioritize alternative strategies to reduce seasonality and increase revenue per arrival. From this perspective, an increasing portion of the sector recognizes the importance of infrastructure as a crucial catalyst for entrepreneurial success (49%, up from 30% in 2023).
In summary, 2024 seems poised to become not only a milestone year for Greek tourism but also the starting point for the sector's journey towards sustainable development.
See the infographic:
